Magic: The Gathering · unf · 2022-10-07
Unfinity — Booster Box (36 packs)
Where the value comes from
| Tier | Odds / pack | Avg card value | EV / pack | Priced | P(≥1) / product |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rare | 86.5% | $0.46 | $0.40 | 100.0% | |
| Mythic Rare | 13.5% | $0.55 | $0.07 | 99.5% |
Expected hits per product: 36.00 (counting every tier the pull-rate table enumerates).
What are the odds you profit?
EV is the average; this is the distribution. 20,000 simulated openings of this exact product, using the same sources, odds and prices as everything above.
Same assumptions as the EV: odds are uniform within each tier (real sets short-print their biggest chases, so true odds are usually a touch worse than this), cards sell at today's market price, and selling costs nothing. Read it as a ceiling, not a promise.
Chase cards
3 priced · biggest hits first
$9.88
$8.66
$5.11Each tile: card value (top-right), then the odds of pulling that exact cardfrom a single pack — shown as “1 in N packs” and as a percentage (the same number, two ways). Per-card odds assume every card in a tier is equally likely — no public data quantifies short prints. See methodology.
Special-treatment cards
23 shown · not counted in EV
$178.60
$155.63
$154.59
$143.83
$143.69
$134.07
$112.68
$110.53
$109.76
$92.97
$32.13
$31.85
$30.36
$29.07
$28.16
$27.44
$26.80
$26.34
$23.17
$19.16
$12.40
$6.72
$5.03Premium special-art printings — showcase/borderless prints, ultra-secret SARs and the like. They’re the set’s headline chases but pulled far below any rate public data quantifies, so they’re shown here for reference and deliberately excluded from the EV above.
How many packs for…
No number of packs guarantees it — that is what a -84.3% market ROI pays for.
Magic booster EV, modeled on the ~1 rare-or-mythic-per-pack structure common to Draft, Set and Play Boosters: rare 0.865 / mythic 0.135 (mythic ~1 in 7-8), plus ~7 commons + ~3 uncommons per pack. WotC discloses booster collation, so this beats a pure community estimate, but it is still MODELLED and capped LOW: (1) special treatments (showcase/borderless/extended, and pre-2024 alt-frames) are folded into the flat common/uncommon/rare/mythic tiers with a uniform-within-tier assumption, which OVERSTATES the odds of the specific expensive alt-treatment prints; (2) prices are the NON-FOIL TCGplayer market price (via Scryfall) — a pack's guaranteed slots are all non-foil; the single foil slot's extra value is not added to EV (conservative); (3) for Play Boosters the wildcard + foil slots add ~0.2 more rares/mythics per pack that are NOT modelled (conservative); (4) older sets used Draft Boosters (more commons, foil ~1 in 3-4 packs) - the rare/mythic value driver is the same but the rest is approximate. Only cards Scryfall marks booster:true are counted (no promos/box-toppers/Commander cards). Net: a rough, indicative pack EV, not a precise one.
Market price history
No history yet. The chart fills in as the daily price job accumulates snapshots.