Pokémon TCG · SV8a · 2024-12-06
テラスタルフェスex — Booster Box (10 packs)
Where the value comes from
| Tier | Odds / pack | Avg card value | EV / pack | Priced | P(≥1) / product |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Special Illustration Rare | 11.0% | $39.04 | $4.29 | 68.8% | |
| Ultra Rare | 2.0% | $1.35 | $0.03 | 18.3% | |
| Hyper Rare | 0.6% | $15.84 | $0.10 | 5.8% | |
| Bulk / regular cards | 86.4% | ≈ $0.01 | — | — |
Expected hits per product: 1.36 (counting every tier the pull-rate table enumerates). The Bulk / regular cards row is the rest of a pack — commons, uncommons and plain rares worth about a cent — shown so the odds add up to the whole pack.
What are the odds you profit?
EV is the average; this is the distribution. 20,000 simulated openings of this exact product, using the same sources, odds and prices as everything above.
Same assumptions as the EV: odds are uniform within each tier (real sets short-print their biggest chases, so true odds are usually a touch worse than this), cards sell at today's market price, and selling costs nothing. Read it as a ceiling, not a promise.
Chase cards
28 priced · biggest hits first
$427.65
$152.14
$87.93
$81.25
$79.41
$78.40
$60.73
$59.92
$54.48
$42.21
$35.96
$23.07
$22.53
$17.57
$13.66
$11.90
$10.31
$8.59
$7.46
$7.10
$6.33
$5.88
$5.55
$5.43
$5.29
$5.10
$5.07
$5.00Each tile: card value (top-right), then the odds of pulling that exact cardfrom a single pack — shown as “1 in N packs” and as a percentage (the same number, two ways). Per-card odds assume every card in a tier is equally likely — no public data quantifies short prints. See methodology.
Is it worth grading?
PSA US fees, approx · Jul 2026What a PSA 10 sells for vs the raw price plus PSA's fee — the upside if the card grades a 10. The odds of actually getting a 10 are a separate column, still pending.
| Card | Raw | PSA fee | PSA 10 value | Net if 10 | Chance of 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ブラッキーex #217 | $427.65 | $79.99 (Regular) | — | — | — |
| ニンフィアex #212 | $152.14 | $79.99 (Regular) | — | — | — |
| リーフィアex #200 | $87.93 | $79.99 (Regular) | — | — | — |
| グレイシアex #206 | $81.25 | $79.99 (Regular) | — | — | — |
| シャワーズex #205 | $79.41 | $79.99 (Regular) | — | — | — |
| エーフィex #211 | $78.40 | $79.99 (Regular) | — | — | — |
| ピカチュウex #236 | $60.73 | $79.99 (Regular) | — | — | — |
| ブースターex #202 | $59.92 | $79.99 (Regular) | — | — | — |
| サンダースex #209 | $54.48 | $79.99 (Regular) | — | — | — |
| イーブイex #223 | $42.21 | $79.99 (Regular) | — | — | — |
| トドロクツキex #218 | $35.96 | $79.99 (Regular) | — | — | — |
| イーブイex #224 | $23.07 | $79.99 (Regular) | — | — | — |
Net if 10= PSA 10 value − raw − fee, the gain assuming a perfect grade (an upper bound — most cards won't 10). Chance of 10is this card's own PSA population — of every copy graded, the share that came back a 10 — and it drives the graded EV toggle instead of one flat assumption. Read it as a ceiling, not a coin flip: it counts cards people CHOSE to submit, which skews toward good copies, and a card pulled from a pack today may fare worse. A “—” means too few graded copies to quote. PSA 10 prices come from Scrydex and PokemonPriceTracker. Fees exclude shipping and use the cheapest PSA tier for each card's declared (graded) value. PSA paused its cheaper Value tiers in June 2026 under a grading backlog, so Regular ($79.99) is the current floor — grading a card much under ~$100 rarely makes sense.
How many packs for…
No number of packs guarantees it — that is what a -52.3% market ROI pays for.
High Class pack, 10 packs x 10 cards. Site sample: 2,000 BOX (20,000 packs). Per box: 1 Pokemon SAR GUARANTEED plus ~10% for a second (support) SAR; SR ~20%; UR ~6%. Master Ball / Monster Ball mirror variants are print styles of regular cards, not tiers, and are not modelled. The set's RR and ACE cards are not tallied by the source and are omitted — a conservative omission. Rates come from ポケゲトちゃんねる (pokemon-infomation.com), which aggregates real box-opening tallies from card shops and individuals — the closest thing Japanese sets have to a primary study, since neither The Pokemon Company nor any English source publishes Japanese odds. Confidence is MEDIUM: the samples are large (hundreds to thousands of boxes) and the methodology is consistent across sets, but the underlying tallies are not independently auditable. Per-pack probabilities are the site's per-BOX figures divided by the box's pack count, which is separately sourced. NOTE ON GUARANTEES: the per-box guarantees (1 SAR/box on High Class, 3 AR/box, 1 ACE/box etc.) are folded into the slot rates above rather than modelled as engine floors — a floor attaches to a PRODUCT, so a single-pack product would inherit the whole box's guarantee and read absurdly positive. The rates are per-box tallies divided by pack count, so a box's EV already reflects every guarantee.
Market price history
One data point so far ($92.53 on 2026-08-24). The chart fills in as the daily price job accumulates snapshots.