Pokémon TCG · base1 · 1999-01-09
Base — Booster Box (36 packs)
Where the value comes from
| Tier | Odds / pack | Avg card value | EV / pack | Priced | P(≥1) / product |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ultra Rare | 33.0% | $124.91 | $41.22 | 100.0% | |
| Bulk / regular cards | 67.0% | ≈ $0.01 | — | — |
Expected hits per product: 11.88 (counting every tier the pull-rate table enumerates). The Bulk / regular cards row is the rest of a pack — commons, uncommons and plain rares worth about a cent — shown so the odds add up to the whole pack.
What are the odds you profit?
EV is the average; this is the distribution. 20,000 simulated openings of this exact product, using the same sources, odds and prices as everything above.
Same assumptions as the EV: odds are uniform within each tier (real sets short-print their biggest chases, so true odds are usually a touch worse than this), cards sell at today's market price, and selling costs nothing. Read it as a ceiling, not a promise.
Chase cards
15 priced · biggest hits first
$855.52
$224.92
$188.73
$77.50
$69.63
$69.18
$61.75
$57.00
$49.74
$47.60
$39.13
$38.74
$37.14
$34.43
$22.59Each tile: card value (top-right), then the odds of pulling that exact cardfrom a single pack — shown as “1 in N packs” and as a percentage (the same number, two ways). Per-card odds assume every card in a tier is equally likely — no public data quantifies short prints. See methodology.
Is it worth grading?
PSA US fees, approx · Jul 2026What a PSA 10 sells for vs the raw price plus PSA's fee — the upside if the card grades a 10. The odds of actually getting a 10 are a separate column, still pending.
| Card | Raw | PSA fee | PSA 10 value | Net if 10 | Chance of 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charizard #4 | $855.52 | $999.00 (Premium 1) | $14,289.09 | +$12,434.57 | 0%n=103,282 |
| Blastoise #2 | $224.92 | $599.00 (Walk-Through) | $7,542.59 | +$6,718.67 | 1%n=51,316 |
| Venusaur #15 | $188.73 | $79.99 (Regular) | $1,208.92 | +$940.20 | 1%n=46,358 |
| Raichu #14 | $77.50 | $79.99 (Regular) | — | — | 1%n=17,030 |
| Mewtwo #10 | $69.63 | $349.00 (Super Express) | $4,592.86 | +$4,174.23 | 2%n=30,849 |
| Alakazam #1 | $69.18 | $349.00 (Super Express) | $3,087.39 | +$2,669.21 | 2%n=20,192 |
| Chansey #3 | $61.75 | $79.99 (Regular) | — | — | 1%n=16,124 |
| Zapdos #16 | $57.00 | $149.00 (Express) | $2,048.17 | +$1,842.17 | 4%n=19,074 |
| Gyarados #6 | $49.74 | $149.00 (Express) | $2,489.61 | +$2,290.87 | 2%n=24,989 |
| Clefairy #5 | $47.60 | $79.99 (Regular) | $1,212.58 | +$1,084.99 | 1%n=13,498 |
| Poliwrath #13 | $39.13 | $79.99 (Regular) | $1,217.08 | +$1,097.96 | 4%n=15,223 |
| Nidoking #11 | $38.74 | $149.00 (Express) | $1,649.07 | +$1,461.33 | 2%n=15,888 |
Net if 10= PSA 10 value − raw − fee, the gain assuming a perfect grade (an upper bound — most cards won't 10). Chance of 10is this card's own PSA population — of every copy graded, the share that came back a 10 — and it drives the graded EV toggle instead of one flat assumption. Read it as a ceiling, not a coin flip: it counts cards people CHOSE to submit, which skews toward good copies, and a card pulled from a pack today may fare worse. A “—” means too few graded copies to quote. PSA 10 prices come from Scrydex and PokemonPriceTracker. Fees exclude shipping and use the cheapest PSA tier for each card's declared (graded) value. PSA paused its cheaper Value tiers in June 2026 under a grading backlog, so Regular ($79.99) is the current floor — grading a card much under ~$100 rarely makes sense.
How many packs for…
No number of packs guarantees it — that is what a -95.9% market ROI pays for.
NO PRIMARY DATA EXISTS FOR THIS ERA. The '1 in 3 packs' holo rate is NOT established by any primary measurement. A dedicated 2026 research pass traced its canonical statement to a single 2010 PokeBeach forum guide - a blanket, era-blind, uncounted line reading 'HOLO (ANY SET): One in every three packs (1:3), about twelve per box', with no set breakdown and no sample. Several apparently precise per-set holo tallies (Fossil 1st Edition 120 holos in 360 packs, Base Unlimited 96/288, Jungle 1st Edition 65/216, Gym Heroes 1st Edition 68/216) were checked and REFUTED - they could not be traced to a real counted source and must not be used. Critically, NO source was found documenting ANY pack-composition difference between 1st Edition, Shadowless and Unlimited print runs, so this table cannot distinguish them and does not try. What IS solid is composition: a 1999-2000 pack is 11 cards - 1 rare, 3 uncommon, 7 common - with NO reverse-holo slot (the reverse slot arrives with Legendary Collection in May 2002), and a single rare slot from which any holo must come. ultra_rare (Rare Holo) is set to ~0.33/pack on the unverified 1:3 figure; non-holo rares and below are bulk. Card and box prices are PriceCharting's Unlimited-print figures. Neither Wizards of the Coast nor The Pokemon Company ever published odds for these sets.
Market price history
No history yet. The chart fills in as the daily price job accumulates snapshots.