Pokémon TCG · rsv10pt5 · 2025-07-18

White Flare — Booster Pack

Sourcesblend

Expected value

$5.17

$5.17 per pack × 1

Retail (MSRP)

$4.49+15.2%

if you can find it at retail price

Current market

$15.34-66.3%

live market price

Where the value comes from

Tier	Odds / pack	Avg card value	EV / pack	Priced	P(≥1) / product
Double Rare	21.1%	$0.82	$0.17	6/6	21.1%
Ultra Rare	5.8%	$2.76	$0.16	8/8	5.8%
Illustration Rare	16.4%	$22.62	$3.71	69/69	16.4%
Special Illustration Rare	1.3%	$67.24	$0.84	7/7	1.2%
Black White Rare	0.1%	$488.78	$0.29	1/1	0.1%
Bulk / regular cards	55.4%	≈ $0.01	—	—	—

Expected hits per product: 0.45 (counting every tier the pull-rate table enumerates). The Bulk / regular cards row is the rest of a pack — commons, uncommons and plain rares worth about a cent — shown so the odds add up to the whole pack.

What are the odds you profit?

EV is the average; this is the distribution. 20,000 simulated openings of this exact product, using the same sources, odds and prices as everything above.

11.4%

beat today's market price

18.1%

beat retail (MSRP)

$0.00

median opening

$17.76

luckiest 1 in 10 opens above

Same assumptions as the EV: odds are uniform within each tier (real sets short-print their biggest chases, so true odds are usually a touch worse than this), cards sell at today's market price, and selling costs nothing. Read it as a ceiling, not a promise.

Chase cards

78 priced · biggest hits first

$488.78

Reshiram ex #173

Black White Rare

1 in 1,667 packs0.06%

$196.95

Reshiram ex #166

Special Illustration Rare

1 in 560 packs0.18%

$86.75

Oshawott #105

Illustration Rare

1 in 421 packs0.24%

$79.45

Hydreigon ex #169

Special Illustration Rare

1 in 560 packs0.18%

$72.45

Zoroark #143

Illustration Rare

1 in 421 packs0.24%

$70.18

Keldeo ex #167

Special Illustration Rare

1 in 560 packs0.18%

$68.61

Chandelure #103

Illustration Rare

1 in 421 packs0.24%

$51.91

Hilda #171

Special Illustration Rare

1 in 560 packs0.18%

$51.76

Samurott #107

Illustration Rare

1 in 421 packs0.24%

$47.61

Liepard #137

Illustration Rare

1 in 421 packs0.24%

$44.39

Emboar #98

Illustration Rare

1 in 421 packs0.24%

$42.70

Vanilluxe #113

Illustration Rare

1 in 421 packs0.24%

$41.74

Zorua #142

Illustration Rare

1 in 421 packs0.24%

$39.72

Sawsbuck #92

Illustration Rare

1 in 421 packs0.24%

$38.94

Leavanny #89

Illustration Rare

1 in 421 packs0.24%

$37.75

Tepig #96

Illustration Rare

1 in 421 packs0.24%

$34.19

Lillipup #154

Illustration Rare

1 in 421 packs0.24%

$32.58

Ducklett #109

Illustration Rare

1 in 421 packs0.24%

$30.89

Joltik #116

Illustration Rare

1 in 421 packs0.24%

$30.85

Litwick #101

Illustration Rare

1 in 421 packs0.24%

$30.51

Virizion #95

Illustration Rare

1 in 421 packs0.24%

$28.74

Zebstrika #115

Illustration Rare

1 in 421 packs0.24%

$28.08

Cofagrigus #123

Illustration Rare

1 in 421 packs0.24%

$27.42

Whimsicott ex #165

Special Illustration Rare

1 in 560 packs0.18%

$26.76

Stoutland #156

Illustration Rare

1 in 421 packs0.24%

$26.29

Terrakion #135

Illustration Rare

1 in 421 packs0.24%

$25.99

Jellicent ex #168

Special Illustration Rare

1 in 560 packs0.18%

$25.04

Scrafty #139

Illustration Rare

1 in 421 packs0.24%

$23.93

Druddigon #151

Illustration Rare

1 in 421 packs0.24%

$23.73

Gothita #124

Illustration Rare

1 in 421 packs0.24%

$23.16

Dewott #106

Illustration Rare

1 in 421 packs0.24%

$22.33

Deerling #91

Illustration Rare

1 in 421 packs0.24%

$20.23

Galvantula #117

Illustration Rare

1 in 421 packs0.24%

$20.12

Garbodor #141

Illustration Rare

1 in 421 packs0.24%

$19.98

Purrloin #136

Illustration Rare

1 in 421 packs0.24%

$19.10

Gothorita #125

Illustration Rare

1 in 421 packs0.24%

$19.00

Ferrothorn #149

Illustration Rare

1 in 421 packs0.24%

$18.95

Scraggy #138

Illustration Rare

1 in 421 packs0.24%

$18.81

Bouffalant ex #170

Special Illustration Rare

1 in 560 packs0.18%

$18.57

Gigalith #129

Illustration Rare

1 in 421 packs0.24%

$18.31

Deino #146

Illustration Rare

1 in 421 packs0.24%

$18.18

Herdier #155

Illustration Rare

1 in 421 packs0.24%

$18.14

Sewaddle #87

Illustration Rare

1 in 421 packs0.24%

$17.76

Accelgor #94

Illustration Rare

1 in 421 packs0.24%

$17.69

Trubbish #140

Illustration Rare

1 in 421 packs0.24%

$17.46

Lampent #102

Illustration Rare

1 in 421 packs0.24%

$16.65

Simisear #100

Illustration Rare

1 in 421 packs0.24%

$15.71

Swanna #110

Illustration Rare

1 in 421 packs0.24%

$15.41

Vanillite #111

Illustration Rare

1 in 421 packs0.24%

$15.12

Swoobat #120

Illustration Rare

1 in 421 packs0.24%

$14.76

Vanillish #112

Illustration Rare

1 in 421 packs0.24%

$14.70

Woobat #119

Illustration Rare

1 in 421 packs0.24%

$13.80

Pansear #99

Illustration Rare

1 in 421 packs0.24%

$13.79

Mienfoo #133

Illustration Rare

1 in 421 packs0.24%

$13.43

Pignite #97

Illustration Rare

1 in 421 packs0.24%

$13.34

Frillish #126

Illustration Rare

1 in 421 packs0.24%

$13.30

Zweilous #147

Illustration Rare

1 in 421 packs0.24%

$13.06

Archeops #132

Illustration Rare

1 in 421 packs0.24%

$12.78

Sawk #130

Illustration Rare

1 in 421 packs0.24%

$12.15

Sigilyph #121

Illustration Rare

1 in 421 packs0.24%

$11.56

Patrat #152

Illustration Rare

1 in 421 packs0.24%

$11.45

Swadloon #88

Illustration Rare

1 in 421 packs0.24%

$11.12

Durant #150

Illustration Rare

1 in 421 packs0.24%

$10.77

Roggenrola #127

Illustration Rare

1 in 421 packs0.24%

$10.76

Yamask #122

Illustration Rare

1 in 421 packs0.24%

$10.45

Blitzle #114

Illustration Rare

1 in 421 packs0.24%

$10.44

Cottonee #90

Illustration Rare

1 in 421 packs0.24%

$10.23

Hilda #164

Ultra Rare

1 in 137 packs0.73%

$10.13

Mandibuzz #145

Illustration Rare

1 in 421 packs0.24%

$9.99

Vullaby #144

Illustration Rare

1 in 421 packs0.24%

$9.81

Mienshao #134

Illustration Rare

1 in 421 packs0.24%

$9.78

Watchog #153

Illustration Rare

1 in 421 packs0.24%

$9.38

Basculin #108

Illustration Rare

1 in 421 packs0.24%

$8.01

Heatmor #104

Illustration Rare

1 in 421 packs0.24%

$7.40

Shelmet #93

Illustration Rare

1 in 421 packs0.24%

$6.78

Ferroseed #148

Illustration Rare

1 in 421 packs0.24%

$6.05

Stunfisk #118

Illustration Rare

1 in 421 packs0.24%

$5.71

Boldore #128

Illustration Rare

1 in 421 packs0.24%

Each tile: card value (top-right), then the odds of pulling that exact cardfrom a single pack — shown as “1 in N packs” and as a percentage (the same number, two ways). Per-card odds assume every card in a tier is equally likely — no public data quantifies short prints. See methodology.

Is it worth grading?

PSA US fees, approx · Jul 2026

What a PSA 10 sells for vs the raw price plus PSA's fee — the upside if the card grades a 10. The odds of actually getting a 10 are a separate column, still pending.

Card	Raw	PSA fee	PSA 10 value	Net if 10	Chance of 10
Reshiram ex #173	$488.78	$79.99 (Regular)	$1,331.77	+$763.00	59%n=10,789
Reshiram ex #166	$196.95	$79.99 (Regular)	$468.47	+$191.53	54%n=9,671
Oshawott #105	$86.75	$79.99 (Regular)	$1,004.73	+$837.99	15%n=2,887
Hydreigon ex #169	$79.45	$79.99 (Regular)	$206.96	+$47.53	54%n=6,140
Zoroark #143	$72.45	$79.99 (Regular)	$487.19	+$334.75	18%n=1,344
Keldeo ex #167	$70.18	$79.99 (Regular)	$204.76	+$54.59	53%n=4,906
Chandelure #103	$68.61	$79.99 (Regular)	$319.45	+$170.86	28%n=1,106
Hilda #171	$51.91	$79.99 (Regular)	$123.23	$-8.67	45%n=3,501
Samurott #107	$51.76	$79.99 (Regular)	$482.18	+$350.43	17%n=1,066
Liepard #137	$47.61	$79.99 (Regular)	$407.08	+$279.48	26%n=537
Emboar #98	$44.39	$79.99 (Regular)	$335.24	+$210.86	19%n=636
Vanilluxe #113	$42.70	$79.99 (Regular)	$348.99	+$226.30	18%n=400

Net if 10= PSA 10 value − raw − fee, the gain assuming a perfect grade (an upper bound — most cards won't 10). Chance of 10is this card's own PSA population — of every copy graded, the share that came back a 10 — and it drives the graded EV toggle instead of one flat assumption. Read it as a ceiling, not a coin flip: it counts cards people CHOSE to submit, which skews toward good copies, and a card pulled from a pack today may fare worse. A “—” means too few graded copies to quote. PSA 10 prices come from Scrydex and PokemonPriceTracker. Fees exclude shipping and use the cheapest PSA tier for each card's declared (graded) value. PSA paused its cheaper Value tiers in June 2026 under a grading backlog, so Regular ($79.99) is the current floor — grading a card much under ~$100 rarely makes sense.

How many packs for…

1,155 packs for a 50% chance

3,837 packs for a 90% chance

No number of packs guarantees it — that is what a -66.3% market ROI pays for.

Pull-rate data

MEDIUMn=700source ↗

TCGplayer / eBay Authentication Center study (Peter Day, published 2025-07-21): White Flare and Black Bolt data combined into one 700+ pack sample on the stated assumption the two split sets share rates — Double Rare 21.11% ±2.98, Ultra Rare 5.83% ±1.71, Illustration Rare 16.39% ±2.70, Special Illustration Rare 1.25% ±0.81. Confidence is capped at MEDIUM: the sample is much smaller than a normal study (wide CIs) and the sets are combined. Illustration Rares are ~1 in 6 (twice the usual rate) but there are 70 of them. The Black White Rare chase (Reshiram ex / Victini) is reported as UNKNOWN — the study found zero in 700 packs — so its slot uses an estimated ~1 in 1,600, included only so the tier's value isn't dropped from EV; treat it as indicative. Poke Ball / Master Ball reverse-holo foils (~30% and ~5% of packs) are not modelled: pokemontcg.io lists them as price variants, not separate cards.

Market price history

27 days · 2026-07-29 → 2026-08-25

$15.34▲ $0.49 (3.3%)range $14.65–$18.50

Daily median of eBay-sold (PriceCharting) sealed prices. Updates each time the price job runs.