Pokémon TCG · sv8pt5 · 2025-01-17
Prismatic Evolutions — Super-Premium Collection (15 packs)
Where the value comes from
| Tier | Odds / pack | Avg card value | EV / pack | Priced | P(≥1) / product |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Double Rare | 16.4% | $2.40 | $0.39 | 93.2% | |
| Ultra Rare | 7.5% | $0.87 | $0.06 | 68.7% | |
| ACE SPEC Rare | 4.7% | $0.75 | $0.03 | 51.2% | |
| Special Illustration Rare | 2.2% | $144.45 | $3.21 | 28.6% | |
| Hyper Rare | 0.6% | $17.73 | $0.10 | 8.1% | |
| Bulk / regular cards | 68.7% | ≈ $0.01 | — | — |
Expected hits per product: 4.69 (counting every tier the pull-rate table enumerates). The Bulk / regular cards row is the rest of a pack — commons, uncommons and plain rares worth about a cent — shown so the odds add up to the whole pack.
What are the odds you profit?
EV is the average; this is the distribution. 20,000 simulated openings of this exact product, using the same sources, odds and prices as everything above.
Same assumptions as the EV: odds are uniform within each tier (real sets short-print their biggest chases, so true odds are usually a touch worse than this), cards sell at today's market price, and selling costs nothing. Read it as a ceiling, not a promise.
Chase cards
40 priced · biggest hits first
$1,419.48
$490.27
$327.19
$310.53
$271.85
$260.45
$203.63
$193.44
$169.47
$168.20
$102.61
$96.32
$67.70
$63.38
$57.62
$49.32
$46.17
$41.45
$33.22
$30.74
$29.69
$29.63
$29.34
$25.72
$25.36
$23.46
$19.22
$18.40
$17.27
$17.24
$15.52
$13.29
$12.84
$10.36
$8.34
$8.06
$6.70
$5.97
$5.94
$5.14Each tile: card value (top-right), then the odds of pulling that exact cardfrom a single pack — shown as “1 in N packs” and as a percentage (the same number, two ways). Per-card odds assume every card in a tier is equally likely — no public data quantifies short prints. See methodology.
Is it worth grading?
PSA US fees, approx · Jul 2026What a PSA 10 sells for vs the raw price plus PSA's fee — the upside if the card grades a 10. The odds of actually getting a 10 are a separate column, still pending.
| Card | Raw | PSA fee | PSA 10 value | Net if 10 | Chance of 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Umbreon ex #161 | $1,419.48 | $599.00 (Walk-Through) | $5,402.44 | +$3,383.96 | 30%n=21,193 |
| Sylveon ex #156 | $490.27 | $149.00 (Express) | $1,539.29 | +$900.02 | 29%n=13,203 |
| Leafeon ex #144 | $327.19 | $79.99 (Regular) | $809.69 | +$402.52 | 34%n=12,486 |
| Espeon ex #155 | $310.53 | $79.99 (Regular) | $1,076.28 | +$685.76 | 29%n=11,916 |
| Vaporeon ex #149 | $271.85 | $79.99 (Regular) | $1,021.12 | +$669.29 | 26%n=10,703 |
| Glaceon ex #150 | $260.45 | $79.99 (Regular) | $728.65 | +$388.21 | 32%n=11,171 |
| Flareon ex #146 | $203.63 | $79.99 (Regular) | $636.92 | +$353.31 | 32%n=10,652 |
| Jolteon ex #153 | $193.44 | $79.99 (Regular) | $641.60 | +$368.18 | 29%n=10,814 |
| Eevee ex #167 | $169.47 | $79.99 (Regular) | $577.24 | +$327.78 | 31%n=9,544 |
| Roaring Moon ex #162 | $168.20 | $79.99 (Regular) | $704.00 | +$455.81 | 32%n=7,885 |
| Dragapult ex #165 | $102.61 | $79.99 (Regular) | $236.83 | +$54.23 | 38%n=4,705 |
| Ceruledge ex #147 | $96.32 | $79.99 (Regular) | $310.65 | +$134.35 | 40%n=6,524 |
Net if 10= PSA 10 value − raw − fee, the gain assuming a perfect grade (an upper bound — most cards won't 10). Chance of 10is this card's own PSA population — of every copy graded, the share that came back a 10 — and it drives the graded EV toggle instead of one flat assumption. Read it as a ceiling, not a coin flip: it counts cards people CHOSE to submit, which skews toward good copies, and a card pulled from a pack today may fare worse. A “—” means too few graded copies to quote. PSA 10 prices come from Scrydex and PokemonPriceTracker. Fees exclude shipping and use the cheapest PSA tier for each card's declared (graded) value. PSA paused its cheaper Value tiers in June 2026 under a grading backlog, so Regular ($79.99) is the current floor — grading a card much under ~$100 rarely makes sense.
How many packs for…
No number of packs guarantees it — that is what a -77.0% market ROI pays for.
TCGplayer Authentication Center study, read directly from the primary article (Peter Day, published 2025-01-17, updated 2025-01-27): more than 1,200 Prismatic Evolutions booster packs opened. Two nuances from the primary that republications miss. (1) Multi-SIR packs exist — 'Demigod Packs' with three SIRs and 'God Packs' with the full Eeveelution SIR line — so the SIR figure (~1 in 45) is the average COUNT of SIRs per pack, not the probability a pack contains one; TCGplayer states P(pack has >=1 SIR) is somewhat below 1/45 while the per-pack average holds. Our EV math uses expected count, so EV is computed correctly; the P(at least one SIR) shown per product is slightly OVERSTATED as a result. Their sample contained an estimated two Demigod packs and zero God packs (some SIR Eeveelutions were never pulled at all). (2) Structure, verified against the live catalog: no Illustration Rare tier exists (32 SIRs, 0 IRs, 180 cards); instead every C/UC/R has Poke Ball (~1 in 3) and Master Ball (~1 in 20) reverse variants, which are printing variants of existing cards and are unmodelled — EV slightly understates pack value. Version 1 rated this medium via republications; this is the primary, read directly.
Sources disagree
- ACE SPEC Rare: we use 1 in 21 packs · 1 in 29 packs (200 packs, -26% apart)
- Special Illustration Rare: we use 1 in 45 packs · 1 in 53 packs (200 packs, -15% apart)
- Hyper Rare: we use 1 in 179 packs · 1 in 152 packs (200 packs, 18% apart)
We show the spread rather than pretending the community agrees.
Market price history
One data point so far ($248.19 on 2026-08-24). The chart fills in as the daily price job accumulates snapshots.