Pokémon TCG · swsh11 · 2022-09-09
Lost Origin — Elite Trainer Box (8 packs)
Where the value comes from
| Tier | Odds / pack | Avg card value | EV / pack | Priced | P(≥1) / product |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Double Rare | 16.6% | $1.05 | $0.17 | 76.7% | |
| Ultra Rare | 8.3% | $35.76 | $2.97 | 50.1% | |
| Hyper Rare | 2.1% | $6.95 | $0.14 | 15.3% | |
| Bulk / regular cards | 73.0% | ≈ $0.01 | — | — |
Expected hits per product: 2.16 (counting every tier the pull-rate table enumerates). The Bulk / regular cards row is the rest of a pack — commons, uncommons and plain rares worth about a cent — shown so the odds add up to the whole pack.
What are the odds you profit?
EV is the average; this is the distribution. 20,000 simulated openings of this exact product, using the same sources, odds and prices as everything above.
Same assumptions as the EV: odds are uniform within each tier (real sets short-print their biggest chases, so true odds are usually a touch worse than this), cards sell at today's market price, and selling costs nothing. Read it as a ceiling, not a promise.
Chase cards
16 priced · biggest hits first
$810.98
$198.97
$28.47
$26.63
$20.84
$17.79
$17.54
$14.39
$9.05
$8.57
$8.23
$6.20
$5.98
$5.87
$5.18
$5.05Each tile: card value (top-right), then the odds of pulling that exact cardfrom a single pack — shown as “1 in N packs” and as a percentage (the same number, two ways). Per-card odds assume every card in a tier is equally likely — no public data quantifies short prints. See methodology.
Is it worth grading?
PSA US fees, approx · Jul 2026What a PSA 10 sells for vs the raw price plus PSA's fee — the upside if the card grades a 10. The odds of actually getting a 10 are a separate column, still pending.
| Card | Raw | PSA fee | PSA 10 value | Net if 10 | Chance of 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Giratina V #186 | $810.98 | $349.00 (Super Express) | $3,613.33 | +$2,453.35 | 41%n=23,872 |
| Aerodactyl V #180 | $198.97 | $79.99 (Regular) | $563.58 | +$284.62 | 45%n=12,056 |
| Rotom V #177 | $28.47 | $79.99 (Regular) | $130.73 | +$22.27 | 46%n=3,485 |
| Giratina VSTAR #201 | $26.63 | $79.99 (Regular) | $136.91 | +$30.30 | 56%n=2,507 |
| Galarian Perrserker V #184 | $20.84 | $79.99 (Regular) | $101.42 | +$0.59 | 51%n=2,476 |
| Giratina VSTAR #212 | $17.79 | $79.99 (Regular) | $148.22 | +$50.44 | 54%n=3,462 |
| Giratina V #185 | $17.54 | $79.99 (Regular) | $168.35 | +$70.83 | 54%n=2,467 |
| Aerodactyl VSTAR #199 | $14.39 | $79.99 (Regular) | $100.89 | +$6.51 | 56%n=1,574 |
Net if 10= PSA 10 value − raw − fee, the gain assuming a perfect grade (an upper bound — most cards won't 10). Chance of 10is this card's own PSA population — of every copy graded, the share that came back a 10 — and it drives the graded EV toggle instead of one flat assumption. Read it as a ceiling, not a coin flip: it counts cards people CHOSE to submit, which skews toward good copies, and a card pulled from a pack today may fare worse. A “—” means too few graded copies to quote. PSA 10 prices come from Scrydex and PokemonPriceTracker. Fees exclude shipping and use the cheapest PSA tier for each card's declared (graded) value. PSA paused its cheaper Value tiers in June 2026 under a grading backlog, so Regular ($79.99) is the current floor — grading a card much under ~$100 rarely makes sense.
How many packs for…
No number of packs guarantees it — that is what a -86.8% market ROI pays for.
PRIMARY MEASURED STUDY: the TCGplayer Authentication Center opened more than 8,000 Lost Origin packs (September 2022) and published per-pack rates. Their figures: Ultra Rare 19.95% overall = normal V 11.63% (1 in 9), VMAX/VSTAR 4.42% (1 in 23), full-art V 1.98% (1 in 51), full-art Trainer 1.42% (1 in 70), alt-art V 0.50% (1 in 201); Radiant Rare 5.01% (1 in 20); Secret Rare 2.05% (1 in 49) = rainbow 1.28% + gold 0.76%; Trainer Gallery 12.31%. Mapped onto this catalog's tiers by INSPECTING which cards each tier holds. double_rare (15 cards) = the 12 normal V PLUS the 3 Radiant Pokemon (Radiant Hisuian Sneasler/Steelix/Gardevoir), so it takes 11.63 + 5.01 = 16.64%. CORRECTION 2026-08-25: this tier previously carried 11.63%, the plain-V rate alone -- the three Radiant cards sat in the tier with their 5.01% slot uncounted, which understated the tier by 5.01 percentage points and understated this set's EV. ultra_rare (32 cards) = plain VMAX/VSTAR plus the #172-196 full-art, alt-art and Trainer range = 19.95 - 11.63 = 8.32%. hyper_rare (21 cards) = the #197+ rainbow and gold range = 2.05%. KNOWN CONSERVATIVE GAP: the 12.31% Trainer Gallery subset (TG01-TG30) is not carried in this catalog, so roughly 12 percentage points of pack contents are unmodelled and this set's EV is UNDERSTATED.
Market price history
2 days · 2026-08-24 → 2026-08-25Daily median of eBay-sold (PriceCharting) sealed prices. Updates each time the price job runs.