Pokémon TCG · swsh7 · 2021-08-27
Evolving Skies — Booster Pack
Where the value comes from
| Tier | Odds / pack | Avg card value | EV / pack | Priced | P(≥1) / product |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Double Rare | 10.6% | $2.38 | $0.25 | 10.6% | |
| Ultra Rare | 9.5% | $52.23 | $4.95 | 9.5% | |
| Hyper Rare | 2.1% | $147.15 | $3.02 | 2.0% | |
| Bulk / regular cards | 77.9% | ≈ $0.01 | — | — |
Expected hits per product: 0.22 (counting every tier the pull-rate table enumerates). The Bulk / regular cards row is the rest of a pack — commons, uncommons and plain rares worth about a cent — shown so the odds add up to the whole pack.
What are the odds you profit?
EV is the average; this is the distribution. 20,000 simulated openings of this exact product, using the same sources, odds and prices as everything above.
Same assumptions as the EV: odds are uniform within each tier (real sets short-print their biggest chases, so true odds are usually a touch worse than this), cards sell at today's market price, and selling costs nothing. Read it as a ceiling, not a promise.
Chase cards
66 priced · biggest hits first
$2,217.83
$1,172.80
$506.60
$450.82
$385.77
$372.50
$364.86
$290.17
$222.56
$190.46
$150.96
$143.36
$120.06
$79.85
$78.73
$71.75
$61.95
$60.02
$46.40
$40.54
$38.49
$37.26
$35.80
$34.08
$26.59
$25.15
$24.56
$24.19
$23.26
$20.99
$20.75
$20.64
$19.40
$18.33
$17.36
$16.90
$16.29
$15.37
$15.21
$12.41
$12.27
$12.10
$11.49
$10.99
$10.84
$10.59
$10.02
$9.99
$9.87
$9.61
$9.33
$9.16
$8.85
$8.41
$8.26
$8.01
$7.13
$7.02
$6.91
$6.61
$6.60
$6.51
$6.24
$6.11
$5.77
$5.60Each tile: card value (top-right), then the odds of pulling that exact cardfrom a single pack — shown as “1 in N packs” and as a percentage (the same number, two ways). Per-card odds assume every card in a tier is equally likely — no public data quantifies short prints. See methodology.
Is it worth grading?
PSA US fees, approx · Jul 2026What a PSA 10 sells for vs the raw price plus PSA's fee — the upside if the card grades a 10. The odds of actually getting a 10 are a separate column, still pending.
| Card | Raw | PSA fee | PSA 10 value | Net if 10 | Chance of 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Umbreon VMAX #215 | $2,217.83 | $349.00 (Super Express) | $4,263.77 | +$1,696.94 | 69%n=30,957 |
| Rayquaza VMAX #218 | $1,172.80 | $349.00 (Super Express) | $2,763.39 | +$1,241.59 | 68%n=21,990 |
| Dragonite V #192 | $506.60 | $79.99 (Regular) | $1,161.64 | +$575.06 | 51%n=20,941 |
| Rayquaza V #194 | $450.82 | $79.99 (Regular) | $1,375.08 | +$844.27 | 51%n=18,903 |
| Leafeon VMAX #205 | $385.77 | $79.99 (Regular) | $615.98 | +$150.23 | 72%n=15,768 |
| Sylveon VMAX #212 | $372.50 | $79.99 (Regular) | $653.50 | +$201.02 | 72%n=19,606 |
| Umbreon V #189 | $364.86 | $79.99 (Regular) | $1,144.88 | +$700.04 | 43%n=19,447 |
| Glaceon VMAX #209 | $290.17 | $79.99 (Regular) | $562.47 | +$192.32 | 71%n=15,350 |
| Espeon V #180 | $222.56 | $79.99 (Regular) | $549.55 | +$247.01 | 50%n=13,622 |
| Sylveon V #184 | $190.46 | $79.99 (Regular) | $456.76 | +$186.32 | 52%n=13,737 |
| Leafeon V #167 | $150.96 | $79.99 (Regular) | $283.83 | +$52.88 | 54%n=12,059 |
| Glaceon V #175 | $143.36 | $79.99 (Regular) | $319.07 | +$95.72 | 49%n=12,875 |
Net if 10= PSA 10 value − raw − fee, the gain assuming a perfect grade (an upper bound — most cards won't 10). Chance of 10is this card's own PSA population — of every copy graded, the share that came back a 10 — and it drives the graded EV toggle instead of one flat assumption. Read it as a ceiling, not a coin flip: it counts cards people CHOSE to submit, which skews toward good copies, and a card pulled from a pack today may fare worse. A “—” means too few graded copies to quote. PSA 10 prices come from Scrydex and PokemonPriceTracker. Fees exclude shipping and use the cheapest PSA tier for each card's declared (graded) value. PSA paused its cheaper Value tiers in June 2026 under a grading backlog, so Regular ($79.99) is the current floor — grading a card much under ~$100 rarely makes sense.
How many packs for…
No number of packs guarantees it — that is what a -80.5% market ROI pays for.
PRIMARY MEASURED STUDY, not a community aggregate: the TCGplayer Authentication Center opened more than 8,000 Evolving Skies packs (August 2021) and published per-pack rates with 95% confidence intervals. Their figures: normal V 10.56% +/-0.65, normal VMAX 5.60% +/-0.48, full art 2.78% +/-0.35, alt-art V 1.10% +/-0.22, rainbow rare 0.84% +/-0.19, gold rare 0.91% +/-0.20; any alt-art VMAX 0.30% +/-0.12 (1 in 332) and the Umbreon VMAX alt 'Moonbreon' about 0.05% (1 in ~2,000). Mapped onto this set's three normalized tiers by what each ACTUALLY contains: double_rare = plain V (#7-122) = 10.56%; ultra_rare = plain VMAX plus the full-art/alt-art V secret range (#166-203) = 5.60+2.78+1.10 = 9.48%; hyper_rare = the #204+ secret range of alt-art VMAX, rainbow and gold = 0.30+0.84+0.91 = 2.05%. Two independent checks confirm the mapping: the three tiers sum to 22.09% against TCGplayer's stated 22.10% for 'any Ultra Rare or Secret Rare', and full-art-or-better sums to 5.93% against their stated 5.94%. This REPLACES a Sword & Shield era-generic estimate that put hyper_rare at 4.2% - roughly double the measured 2.05% - which overstated this set's EV by about 1.5x. Note the tier average understates the headline chase: Moonbreon at 1 in ~2,000 is far rarer than the uniform-within-tier assumption implies, so the error runs in the conservative direction.
Market price history
18 days · 2026-08-04 → 2026-08-25Daily median of eBay-sold (PriceCharting) sealed prices. Updates each time the price job runs.